Bernanke speaks and gold rallies…Amazing.

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By Adam Hewison

Hello fellow traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Thursday, the 2nd of February.

Is the move in gold for real, or is it just hype at this point?
We will examine gold and see what led to today’s rally.

3 Stocks on the move today:

ABERCROMBIE & FITCH (ANF), CUMMINS (CMI), and MASTERCARD (MA).
How did MarketClub’s Trade Triangle technology do against these three stocks?

 

Remember
DON’T FIGHT THE MARKET … MOVE WITH THE MARKET

Now, let’s go to the charts and MarketClub’s Trade Triangle Technology.
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S&P 500 INDEX
BIG PICTURE:  Strong Trend  +90
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: Trading Range 50 – 65 | Emerging Trend 70 – 80 | Strong Trend 85 – 100

The S&P 500 is higher for the week and we would like to see a close over the $1327 level. If that happens today, you should expect to see more upside market momentum next week. With a Score of +90, this market is in a strong upward trend. Longer-term, we expect this market to move up to the $1370 to $1380 level as early as May based on cyclic work. With all of our Trade Triangles green, a bull market is underway. Long and Intermediate term traders should now be holding long positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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Suggested S&P 500 Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF’s: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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SILVER (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range  +60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: Trading Range 50 – 65 | Emerging Trend 70 – 80 | Strong Trend 85 – 100

The silver market moved to new recovery highs and rolled over the $34 resistance level. We are still somewhat surprised at how resilient this metal has been over the last several days. The support level at $33 is key, in our opinion. Should this level give way, we would expect to see a fast move down to the $31 to $32 area. We think this market is at the top of a trading range cycle, but has not provided conclusive proof that the cycle has indeed topped out. With our long-term monthly Trade Triangle red, we expect to see this market run out of steam around current levels. This particular indicator has done extremely well in the past. Long-term term traders should be in short positions in silver with appropriate money management stops. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines.
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Suggested SILVER Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

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GOLD (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range  +60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: Trading Range 50 – 65 | Emerging Trend 70 – 80 | Strong Trend 85 – 100

The gold market moved to its best levels since December 2nd, however it is at major resistance between the $1760 and $1800 levels. With our long-term monthly Trade Triangle still in a negative mode, we cannot get excited about this market at the moment. We are not super bearish on this metal, however we just need further confirmation with the tools we know are successful in trading gold. Long-term term traders should be in short positions in gold with appropriate money management stops. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines.
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Suggested GOLD Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF’s:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

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COPPER (MARCH)
BIG PICTURE: Emerging Trend  +75
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bearish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: Trading Range 50 – 65 | Emerging Trend 70 – 80 | Strong Trend 85 – 100

The copper market has been in a five day retreat and we expect it to find support between $3.70 and $3.80. We continue to be positive on this market and expect the $3.75 level to act as support for any further weakness we see.  As we have said in the past, copper generally reflects economic conditions, and as such is influenced by equity prices. The market action looks as though it has created a large base to move higher in the future. Upside target zone for copper is $4.00. With a Score of +75, we are in an emerging trend for this commodity. Long and Intermediate term traders should now be holding long positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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Suggested Copper Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long JJC)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

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CRUDE OIL (MARCH)
BIG PICTURE: Emerging Trend  -70
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bearish | Short-Term = Bearish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: Trading Range 50 – 65 | Emerging Trend 70 – 80 | Strong Trend 85 – 100

With a Score of -70, this market has entered into an emerging trend to the downside. Only our longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains positive on this market. The move today below the $98 support level puts this market in  jeopardy of further weakness. A close below the $93.50 level seen on December 18th would confirm a double top pivot point formation, which would measure down to the $84 a barrel level. We do remain longer term positive on this market, however it needs to move and close over resistance at $100 to get its upside momentum into high gear.  With only our monthly Trade Triangle in positive mode, we expect we will see further market consolidation in crude oil. Long-term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.
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Suggested Crude Oil Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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DOLLAR INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range  +55
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bearish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: Trading Range 50 – 65 | Emerging Trend 70 – 80 | Strong Trend 85 – 100

For the past seven days, this index has been moving between the $79.5 area on the upside and $78.5 area on the downside. The intermediate term trend is down for this market, however the longer term the trend is still positive. We expect to see some of the Fibonacci retracement levels that we discussed come into play in the days and weeks ahead. With a Score of +55, this market is in a broad trading range. The mixed picture could also mean we will see a pullback to the $78.26 level and the $77.43 level. Both of these levels represent Fibonacci retracement points of 50% and 61.8%. Long term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
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Suggested DOLLAR INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Emerging Trend  -75
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bearish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: Trading Range 50 – 65 | Emerging Trend 70 – 80 | Strong Trend 85 – 100

Our short term daily Trade Triangle moved in to the red, indicating short term weakness, also confirming the longer-term negative monthly Trade Triangle. Only the weekly Trade Triangle is in conflict at the moment. Long-term traders should hold short positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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Suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long) (Short CMD)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.

[Ed. Note: Adam Hewison is the president, chief executive officer, and a founder of INO.com, Inc. He is also the author of two highly-acclaimed guides to the forex markets: International Monetary Report and Right on the Money, the Definitive Guide to Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates. Sign up for his FREE email Trading Course by clicking here now.]

 

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